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“Most operators have worked constructively with us to address historical issues and improve their practices,” Scott said.

“While we’ve made substantial progress, our work is not finished. We’ll continue working with operators to recover funding for communities, improve compliance and maintain public confidence in the integrity of class 4 gambling.”

Alongside the recovery of NZ$11.5 million, the DIA also took action against the class 4 gambling society One Foundation.

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MGM Resorts International’s investment case is supported by Las Vegas, regional casinos, property assets and its 50% interest in BetMGM. Its own share price has been on a different journey to its online pureplay peers, having increased by 5% in a year, to $37.81 on 18 September.

“MGM offers a more diversified investment case, with BetMGM, regional gaming and Las Vegas operations reducing reliance on online sports betting alone,” says Beynon. Robinson makes the same point. “It is a Las Vegas and Macau property business with a betting JV attached, and that is precisely why it has held up.”

Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.

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The consumer battle in prediction markets is increasingly visible. Kalshi, Polymarket and newer entrants are expanding their sports products, while DraftKings, Flutter, Robinhood and a host of others are investing in exchanges, distribution and market-making capabilities.

In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.

The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.